The world is experiencing profound demographic shifts. The United Nations
projects that the number of people aged 65 or more will nearly double between 2023 and 2050, reaching close to 1.6 billion. By 2050, one in six people worldwide will be in this age group, compared to one in ten in 2023.
This ageing is not uniform. While high-income countries already face the pressures of older populations and longer working lives, the fastest growth in the elderly population is happening in low- and middle-income countries. Between 2023 and 2050, the elderly population is projected to more than double in Africa, Asia and Latin America, while growing between 34% and 77% in Europe, North America and Oceania.
These demographic trends underscore the critical importance of robust pension policies, but today, pension coverage is lacking in large parts of the world. The International Labour Organization
estimates that in 2023, 90.8% of the labour force in high-income countries contributed to a pension scheme, but only 32.7% and 7.3% contributed in lower-middle-income and low-income countries, respectively.
Developing countries are facing rapid ageing and low pension coverage, making the need for pension reform urgent. New solutions are needed to expand pension coverage in countries with a high share of informal work.
Informal work dominates employment in many developing countries—89% in low-income and 82% in lower-middle-income economies. As these demographic and labour market trends converge, the risk of old-age poverty is increasing, particularly where the window for setting up sustainable pension systems is rapidly closing. Countries need to act now.
High-income countries, more advanced in the demographic transition, need to reform their pension systems to ensure a secure retirement for a growing share of the elderly in their populations. At the same time, pension systems have to evolve to respond to the rise of non-standard and gig work, self-employment, and longer working lives.
At the Coller Pensions Institute, we view pension reform as a global challenge—and a global opportunity. Well-designed pensions don’t just deliver income in retirement; they promote inclusive growth, financial resilience, and sustainable development.